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Florida Politics - Political Update: A Primer on Polling
By:
marian
On:
11/20/2009 6:28 PM
Posted To: OneVoice
Marian's Corner: A Primer on Polling
The art of campaigning changes every election cycle. Take, for example, the inclusion of polling as the `must have one to be credible’ campaign that polling has become today. It wasn’t that many years ago when the campaign conducted one official scientific poll in the beginning of a campaign and the only other poll was the election day results. However, today, polls are an everyday read in the papers.
Have you ever wondered about some of the jargon used by polling pundits?
What is the difference between a `benchmark’ and a `brushfire’ poll?
What does `tracking’ mean in polling?
We have begun the years countdown to Election Day 2010, so thought it might be good to have everyone on the same page with these simple polling definitions.
Benchmark Poll
This is the first poll in a campaign. From this poll, the campaign plan is written and the progress of the campaign is measured. The results of the benchmark is used to develop winning messages and audiences in order to get enough votes to win the campaign. The image and support level for each candidate is measured and compared. All potential messages for the campaign are tested in order to determine which messages work best. In addition, voters’ attitudes about any issue which may influence the race are measured. It is always the longest poll in a campaign, sometimes 60 - 90 questions, since a number of potential messages will be eliminated and not used during the campaign because they fail to persuade voters.
Brushfire poll
This poll normally is conducted after media has begun and direct mail has landed in households. This poll will test any new issue that has emerged since the benchmark survey. It will also test who has heard the campaign message and gauge their reaction to the communication. These polls allow for an adjustment of the message based upon the reaction of the voters.
Tracking poll
Tracking polls allow the campaign to react during the final stages of the campaign. While they measure the progress in terms of support level, they also measure the impact of both the campaigns message and the opponent’s message. These polls are extremely important in a campaign as they allow a campaign to determine if they need to counter any of the opponent’s messages or simply ignore them. These polls are like having a radar system for the campaign.
Combined, the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Florida Chamber Political Institute has conducted more than 70 polls during the last six years.
We have conducted all three types of the above mentioned polls on a statewide basis and at the legislative district level.
The polls have been used in many ways -- to helped guide the Chamber as it has worked to pass Workers Compensation reform and legal reform to guiding us through the passages of Amendment 2 (2004) and Amendment 3 (2006) to political campaigns.
A good poll is like a good friend -- very dependable.